One of my fantastic professors at Tufts University, Bill Moomaw, recently published an article (Tufts Magazine, Winter 2008) entitled “The 3% Solution” about how our country can achieve an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by approximately the year 2050. If we reduce carbon emissions by 3% each year, we will realize the “50 percent mark in 23 years and the 75 percent mark in 47 years.” At this rate, in 53 years we will attain the 80 percent reduction needed to stabilize atmospheric carbon at 450 parts per million (ppm) and avoid irreversible melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Current atmospheric carbon is 383 ppm.
The U.S. must lead the way in carbon reduction. Once China, India and other developing nations have grown their economies enough to meet their extremely poor citizens’ basic needs for food, shelter, sanitation, clean drinking water, education and healthcare; then they can join us in prioritizing climate stabilization.
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2 comments:
Hi, Justine.
Great blog! Keep up the good work!
In my view, 3% is quite easy. With world oil production declining at 2 to 5% every year once we fall off our current production plateau, we won't even have to try. Oakland is using 2.6% per year in their planning for Energy Descent (see http://www.oaklandnet.com/Oil/default.html to get a copy of their peak oil report) and I'm not sure what Portland is using but it won't be far off.
For an overview of the estimated economic impacts of peak oil and Energy Descent, see my blog entry http://www.inspiringgreenleadership.com/blog/aangel/estimating-economic-impacts-peak-oil. I'm putting together some estimates of what that means from a carbon standpoint and will be releasing that in the next four weeks or so.
A 3% per year decline is easy...keeping our societies together during this process, not so easy.
-André Angelantoni
Andre,
Thanks for your thoughtful comments. I don't think most people are aware that world oil supply probably peaked in 2005. Thank you for the work you are doing to educate.
Cheap, abundant oil has been the foundation of our strong economy for many years and with that ending, we have an opportunity to redesign our society's infrastructure to be more pedestrian friendly, more mass transit-oriented, using renewable energy and set up to source and use local resources.
This new clean energy economy will create jobs in the U.S., improve air quality, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We are standing at a crossroads and it will be interesting to see which road our society chooses to take.
Best, Justine
-Justine
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